Zero‐Inflated Time Series Modelling of COVID‐19 Deaths in Ghana

Zero‐Inflated Time Series Modelling of COVID‐19 Deaths in Ghana

Kassim Tawiah, Wahab Abdul Iddrisu, Killian Asampana Asosega

Discrete count time series data with an excessive number of zeros have warranted the development of zero‐inflated time series models to incorporate the inflation of zeros and the overdispersion that comes with it. In this paper, we investigated the characteristics of the trend of daily count of COVID‐19 deaths in Ghana using zero‐inflated models. We envisaged that the trend of COVID‐19 deaths per day in Ghana portrays a general increase from the onset of the pandemic in the country to about day 160 after which there is a general decrease onward. We fitted a zero‐inflated Poisson autoregressive model and zero‐inflated negative binomial autoregressive model to the data in the partial‐likelihood framework. The zero‐inflated negative binomial autoregressive model outperformed the zero‐inflated Poisson autoregressive model. On the other hand, the dynamic zero‐inflated Poisson autoregressive model …

Hindawi

2021

https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=ECTxVnYAAAAJ&citation_for_view=ECTxVnYAAAAJ:5nxA0vEk-isC

English